# Planning - Plan Probability One Die in an outline format

## Intended learnings & learners thinkings

### Overview

Investigate the odds of rolling a certain number on a six - sided die.

### Focus questions

What happens when a die is rolled?

### Background Information

Probability can be determined in one of two ways: theoretical and experimental.

### Concepts

1. A six sided die has a one in six probability for each (A die has six sides).
2. A fair die has equal probability for each side (Each number appears only once).
3. (Generalization) The probability of an outcome is the number of specific outcomes out of the total number of all possible outcomes of one event.
4. Theoretical probability is determined with reasoning.
5. Experimental probability is determined by repeating a certain event a number of times and collecting numerous results to determine the probability.

### Misconceptions

I can cause a certain number to be rolled (blowing, throw hard, throw a certain way, wishing for it...). It is magic.

### Generative Assessment

1. Predict the probability for a die with a different amount of sides than six.
2. If a spinner has equal partitions, then predict the probability for each section to be selected.
3. Create problems with a drawer that has equal numbers of socks in it.

Bloom’s Taxonomy If students have never experienced the concept and derive the concept on their own it would be application or possibly synthesis. If they have conceptualized the concept before it is comprehension.

### Objective or outcome

Learners predict what will happen if they roll one die 36 times, record predictions, roll one die 36 times, record data, organize data onto a graph, analyze the data, and explain the pattern they found and predict what would happen with different sided die.

### Materials

Die, pencil, paper

## Strategies to achieve educational learnings

Based on learning cycle theory & method

### Beginning

• What do you think would happen if you rolled one die 36 times?
• How did you made that prediction?
• Display all answers on a board for all to see.
• What makes you believe they are right?
• Suggest they should roll the die, collect the data, and find out..

### Middle

• Share the data.
• How could the data results be displayed?
• If there are no suggestions to arrange data have them chart the number of rolls for each roll 1 - 6 (1 - 6 horizontal axis, # rolls verticle axis). Students put their data on the board. Analyze the data. Possible questions:
• What number turned up most?
• What number would you predict would turn up most if you did it again?
• What are the odds of a certain number turning up?
• What did you discover from the data?
• Have students communicate the concept in several ways.